EUR/USD May 22 – Moving Higher as Fed in Spotlight

After a very quiet start to the week, the markets will be busy on Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve will also be front page and center, as the Fed releases the FOMC minutes and Bernard Bernanke testifies in front of a Congressional committee. After sustaining sharp losses,EUR/USD has posted a modest rally this week, gaining about one cent since Monday. In other economic news, the US releases Existing Home Sales, the first major event of the week.  In the Eurozone, Current Account sparkled, posting its largest surplus in more than six years. German 10-year bonds will be up for auction, and the EU holds a summit in Brussels.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady, touching a high of 1.2938, and consolidating at 1.2909. over the 1.29 line early in the session before consolidating at 1.2887. The pair has edged higher in the European session.
• Current range: 1.2880 – 1.2960.

• Further levels in both directions:  

  • Below: 1.2880, 1.2805, 1.2750, 1.27, 1.2624 and 1.2587.
  • Above: 1.2960, 1.30, 1.3030, 1.31, 1.3160 and 1.32.
  • 1.2880 is providing support. This line is slightly stronger as the pair trades at higher levels.
  • 1.2960 is the next line of resistance. It could face pressure if the euro continues to push higher.

Forecast Emini Chart : May 17- 2013 About ZINGA:

ZINGA Forecast chart  designed to point the  turning points or changes in trend , ZINGA apply proprietary IFS cycle theory, and it work better if you enter the trade near the number we provide support/resistance . ZINGA forecast chart can be used to daytrade e-mini futures, the cash markets and ETF's or large futures, option trading,stock market swing trading, trend trading.
 In spite of all the stock market research and analysis done in the application of time and cycles, there are times when  ZINGA Forecast cycles invert.  inversion means  the market is doing exactly the opposite  what expected to do. This inversion shouldn't be a problem for experience trader, cause by looking at (Support/resistance) we provide trader can notice inversion is taking place, then trades against ZINGA

 

Gold extends losing streak on dollar strength

(May 17) Gold fell for a seventh straight session on Friday, its longest losing streak in four years, after comments from a Federal Reserve official that the bank may soon rein in monetary easing lifted the dollar.

The US unit approached a 10-month high against a basket of currencies after San Francisco Fed chief John Williams said the US central bank could begin easing up on stimulus this summer.

While Mr Williams is not a voter this year at the Federal Open Market Committee, his views carry weight as he is considered close to top Fed officials.

That stunted a brief rally seen in gold prices late on Thursday after a batch of soft US data, putting it on track to fall 4.8% this week, its biggest weekly drop in four.

Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,378.50 an ounce at 9.37am GMT, while US gold futures for June delivery were down $10.20 at $1,376.70.

"In the main, the current price weakness is to be attributed to strength in the dollar and massive selling in exchange-traded funds (ETFs)," Sharps Pixley CEO Ross Norman said.

"We’ve had some poor data out of the US, yet the dollar still continues to rise. Clearly a correction in the dollar would be massively supportive for gold."

ETFs — popular investment vehicles that give investors exposure to the gold price through issuing securities backed by physical metal — have seen massive outflows this year.

The largest, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, reported an outflow of another 5.7 tonnes on Thursday, bringing the drop in its holdings this week to more than 10 tonnes.

Physical demand for the metal, which spiked after prices posted their biggest two-day drop in 30 years in April, showed signs of softening.

A Singapore gold trader said buying in India, the main consumer of the precious metal, had fallen significantly from Monday, which saw the celebration of Akshaya Tritiya, considered an auspicious day to buy gold.

Palladium shines

Platinum group metals outperformed this week, with palladium rising 4% as refiners, recyclers, analysts, traders and consumers gathered in London for Platinum Week.

"The outperformance of platinum group metals, and particularly palladium, is consistent with overall positive views expressed by majority of industry participants with whom we’ve spoken," UBS said in a note. "Preference for palladium is more evident than ever.

"Investors appear to be banking on the strong fundamental story and the implications this has on the medium and long term, perhaps choosing to position themselves sooner rather than later," it said. "We expect dips to be bought and for platinum group metals to stay supported overall."

Spot platinum was down 0.3% at $1,474.24 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 0.4% at $733.22 an ounce.

Platinum has benefited from concern over industrial unrest in major producer South Africa. Miners at Anglo American Platinum reported for work on Friday, a company spokeswoman said, despite earlier calls for a strike by some union leaders.

Platinum extended its premium over gold to a two-and-a-half-year high at $94 an ounce, having maintained a historically unusual discount to the yellow metal for much of the previous two years.

Silver prices tracked gold lower, falling 5.4% week on week to $22.53 an ounce. They were down 0.6% on the day.

Gold falls for sixth session, may re-test April lows

(May 16) Gold dropped for the sixth consecutive session on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in four weeks, on a stronger dollar and battered investor sentiment.

Rallying stocks have also hurt bullion's appeal as an alternative investment this year, leading funds to generally liquidate their gold positions.

Gold fell as much as 1.6 percent to a low of $1,369.29 an ounce and stood at $1,374.46 at 1012 GMT.

U.S. gold for June delivery was down 1.6 percent at $1,373.10 an ounce, having hit a low of $1,368.

Traders said the fall below the psychologically significant $1,400 level in the previous session triggered heavy selling and that the metal might retest two-year lows of $1,321.35 hit on April 16.

A sixth consecutive daily fall for bullion would be its longest run of losses since March 2009. It has fallen about 16 percent in 2013 after gaining for the past 12 years.

"It is possible that we will see further selling. This fall is reminiscent of what we saw about a month ago during a sort of flash crash in gold," Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said.

"Investors appear to be tired of gold as a safe haven as they anticipate the end of those loose monetary policies, possibly by the end of this year or maybe early next year, while there also seems to be a return of risk appetite."

The dollar was near a six-week high against the euro and a 4-1/2 year peak against the yen on prospects for more monetary easing in the euro zone and reduced asset buying in the United States, which would undermine the argument for holding gold as a hedge against inflation.

A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market is now turning its attention towards U.S. inflation data, later in the day, as well as the country's weekly jobless claims.

Gold investment nearly halved in the first quarter as a brighter view of the U.S. economy prompted investors in the West to favour assets such as stocks over bullion, the World Gold Council said on Thursday.

Soros Fund Management LLC joined funds including Northern Trust and BlackRock in lowering its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, in the first three months of the year, an SEC filing showed.

Holdings in the SPDR fund fell 0.43 percent to 1,047.14 tonnes on Wednesday; the lowest since March 2009.

However, lower gold prices have attracted physical buying in China. The world's second-largest consumer after India bought a large amount of gold on Thursday.

Premiums for gold bars rallied to record highs up to $5 an ounce over spot London prices in Hong Kong, China's main source for gold imports.

In other precious metals, silver was down 1.5 percent to $22.24 an ounce, having earlier touched its lowest level since April 16 at $22.09. The metal fell 6.7 percent this week in its worst weekly performance for a month.

Platinum fell 1.1 percent to $1,468.24 an ounce, but the metal's premium over gold reached its highest level since August 2011 as South Africa's production worries continue.

Palladium dropped 0.7 percent to $719.22 an ounce.

ZINGA FOREX Chart Time Frame : 03:00 - 12:00 ET 08:00 - 17:00 GMT

ZINGA Chart For May 15- 2013(EUR/USD)

 

ZINGA Forex Chart:

ZINGA Forex chart (EUR/USD)  designed to point the  turning points or changes in trend.ZINGA apply proprietary IFS cycle theory, and it work better if you enter the trade near the number of  support/resistance that you can get with our pivot calculator provided here. ZINGA forex chart can be used only to daytrade(EUR/USD)
invert.  inversion means  the market is doing exactly the opposite  what expected to do. This inversion shouldn't be a problem for experience trader, cause by looking at (Support/resistance)  trader can notice inversion is taking place, then trades against ZINGA

Gold Price Analysis ( May 14)

Gold prices (XAU/USD) closed the session lower than opening on growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of monthly asset purchases. Market participants think the central bank is setting the stage for an exit from its bond-buying program. Lately, comments from the central banks' officials showed that several Federal Open Market Committee members were highly concerned about the risks of more quantitative easing. If the Fed stops providing a flood of cash, this might cause a negative effect on gold prices.

The 4-hour chart suggests that the XAU/USD pair is trying to form a bottom around the 1430 level but for now we are stuck in a tight trading range as the market simply has no real catalyst to push prices in either direction. Although Asian demand for physical gold has been strong in recent days, it won't last forever and the performance of the major equity markets is likely to continue to weigh on the precious metal. Technically speaking, the bulls have to push prices above 1486 in order to gain control over the market but before reaching that level there will be resistance at the 1464 level, which is the top of the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour time frame. Until prices climb above the Ichimoku cloud and the Tenkan-sen line (nine-period moving average, red line) crosses above the Kijun-sen line (twenty six-day moving average, green line), the odds favor the sellers. If the bearish pressure continues and prices break below the 1430 support level, then it is entirely possible that we will see the pair retesting 1411 and 1398.

Monthly Chart: comex Silver

Gold Drops for Third Day as Dollar’s Strength Curbs ETP Holdings

(May 14) Gold fell for a third day in New York as strength in the dollar may mean more declines in exchange-traded products holdings.

Holdings in gold-backed ETPs dropped 0.6 percent on May 10 as the dollar reached a five-week high against six major currencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. Dollar Index climbed as much as 0.2 percent today as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 0.6 percent.

Gold for June delivery dropped 0.6 percent to $1,428.10 an ounce by 6:11 a.m. on Comex in New York. Prices dropped 1.9 percent last week, the first decline in three weeks.

Gold is having its worst start to a year since 1982 after dropping 15 percent and sliding into a bear market in April. Speculators held 67,374 so-called short contracts on May 7, 6.4 percent more than a week earlier, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The net-long position dropped 10 percent to 49,260 futures and options.

Silver for July delivery declined 0.3 percent to $23.59 an ounce, platinum was little changed at $1,486.20 an ounce, and palladium fell 0.1 percent to $704.95 an ounce.

Forecast Emini Chart : May 6 - 2013 About ZINGA:

ZINGA Forecast chart  designed to point the  turning points or changes in trend , ZINGA apply proprietary IFS cycle theory, and it work better if you enter the trade near the number we provide support/resistance . ZINGA forecast chart can be used to daytrade e-mini futures, the cash markets and ETF's or large futures, option trading,stock market swing trading, trend trading.
 In spite of all the stock market research and analysis done in the application of time and cycles, there are times when  ZINGA Forecast cycles invert.  inversion means  the market is doing exactly the opposite  what expected to do. This inversion shouldn't be a problem for experience trader, cause by looking at (Support/resistance) we provide trader can notice inversion is taking place, then trades against ZINGA.

ESM13 Next week forecast support & resistance